Google's direction is clear: they want advertisers to stop thinking about keywords and start thinking about outcomes. Whether this is good for advertisers is debatable. What's not debatable is that it's happening, and we need to adapt.
For context on how we got here, read the history of Google Ads match types.
The Shift Toward Automation
Google's product roadmap tells the story:
2014: Close variants mandatory for exact match 2018: Exact match includes "same meaning" variations 2021: Broad Match Modifier eliminated, phrase match expanded 2022: Performance Max becomes the default Shopping option 2023-2024: Increased pressure to use broad match with Smart Bidding Ongoing: Search terms visibility decreasing, AI recommendations increasing
The pattern: remove advertiser controls, replace with automation.
Where We're Heading
Broad Match as Default
Google heavily promotes broad match combined with Smart Bidding. The message: trust our AI to find the right customers. Your keywords become "signals" rather than targeting criteria.
What this means for negatives:
- More irrelevant queries to filter
- Negative keywords become your primary control
- Proactive negative lists more important than ever
Performance Max Expansion
Performance Max is Google's future—one campaign type across all properties. It's expanding and improving, but fundamental controls remain absent:
- No campaign-level negative keywords
- Limited search term visibility
- Automated everything
This is where Google wants everyone. The only control you'll have is account-level exclusions.
AI-Generated Ad Content
Google is increasingly auto-generating headlines, descriptions, and even extensions. Combined with broad match and Performance Max, this means:
- Less control over what message shows
- Less control over which searches trigger ads
- Google optimizes for their definition of success (clicks, conversions as they measure them)
Privacy Changes
Privacy regulations and browser changes are reducing tracking:
- Less conversion data for Smart Bidding to work with
- More "hidden" search terms in reports
- Modeled conversions replacing exact data
As data gets fuzzier, Google's argument for trusting their AI gets stronger.
Will Keywords Become Obsolete?
Not completely, but their role is changing:
Current State:
- Keywords: Primary targeting mechanism
- Negatives: Secondary filter
- AI: Assists with bidding and variations
Future State:
- AI: Primary targeting mechanism (intent-based, not keyword-based)
- Keywords: Signals to guide AI
- Negatives: One of few remaining controls
Keywords won't disappear, but they'll matter less. Your keyword list becomes a suggestion, not a specification.
What This Means for Negative Keywords
Paradoxically, as keywords become less precise, negative keywords become more valuable:
More Queries to Filter
Broad AI matching means more irrelevant matches. Negative keywords are your defense against the AI's overly enthusiastic interpretations.
Negatives Still Work (Mostly)
Unlike positive keywords, negative keywords still block what you specify. They're one of your last precise controls.
Account-Level Becomes Critical
As campaign-level control decreases, account-level negative lists become your primary defense. Build them robustly.
Preparing for the Future
Short-Term (Now)
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Build comprehensive negative lists
- They'll be harder to build as visibility decreases
- What you establish now carries forward
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Use Search campaigns for visibility
- Search still shows search terms (sort of)
- Use this data to build account-level negatives for Performance Max
-
Test broad match cautiously
- Understand how it works before going all-in
- Build negative lists alongside broad expansion
See match type strategy for current approaches.
Medium-Term (1-2 Years)
-
Accept less control
- Fighting Google's direction wastes energy
- Learn to work within new constraints
-
Focus on what you can control
- Account-level negatives
- Creative/messaging
- Landing page experience
- Conversion tracking accuracy
-
Get conversion tracking right
- AI-based systems need good data
- Better data = better automated targeting
- This becomes your competitive advantage
Long-Term (3+ Years)
-
Diversify channels
- Don't put all eggs in Google's basket
- Microsoft Ads offers more control (for now)
- Build other marketing channels
-
Build first-party data
- Email lists, CRM, direct relationships
- Less dependent on Google's black box
-
Advocate for advertiser controls
- Use feedback channels
- Support industry advocacy
- Google does respond to pressure (sometimes)
The Counter-Argument
To be fair, Google's automation isn't all bad:
It Can Work
Many advertisers see good results with broad match + Smart Bidding. The AI is genuinely improving.
Less Tedious Work
Keyword management is time-consuming. If AI does it well, that's time for other activities.
Finds Opportunities
AI can discover valuable queries you'd never have thought to target. Some "irrelevant" matches turn out to convert.
The question is whether these benefits outweigh the loss of control and transparency.
My Perspective
I'm skeptical of black boxes. Not because AI can't work, but because:
-
Google's incentives don't fully align with advertisers'
- They profit from clicks, you profit from conversions
- Their optimization may favor volume over efficiency
-
Without visibility, you can't verify
- "Trust us" is hard when you can't check the work
- Mistakes in black boxes compound unseen
-
One-size-fits-all doesn't fit all
- Your business is unique
- Generic AI may miss nuances that matter
-
Control has value
- Even imperfect manual control can outperform imperfect automation
- Some advertisers' expertise exceeds Google's general AI
Practical Takeaways
Regardless of how you feel about the direction:
-
Negative keywords remain valuable
- Learn them deeply now
- Build robust lists while you can
-
Don't abandon manual campaigns yet
- Search and Standard Shopping still offer control
- Use them for visibility and strategy validation
-
Adapt, don't resist
- Google's direction won't reverse
- Learn to succeed within new constraints
-
Measure what matters to you
- Don't just trust Google's metrics
- Track actual business outcomes independently
Conclusion
The future of keyword targeting is less keyword-focused. Google's AI will play an increasing role in deciding who sees your ads. This isn't necessarily bad, but it does require adaptation.
Negative keywords are one of your remaining levers. Master them now:
The advertisers who thrive will be those who understand both the automated systems and the manual controls that still exist. Negative keywords remain firmly in the second category—use them wisely.